Abstract: The faster AI automation spreads through the economy, the more profound its potential impacts, both positive (improved productivity) and negative (worker displacement). The previous literature on AI Exposure cannot predict this pace of automation since it attempts to measure an overall potential for AI to affect an area, not the technical feasibility and economic attractiveness of building such systems. In this work, we present a new type of AI task automation model that is end-to-end, estimating: the level of technical performance needed to do a task, the characteristics of an AI system capable of that performance, and the economic choice of whether to build and deploy such a system. The result is a first estimate of which tasks are technically feasible and economically attractive to automate - and which are not. We focus on computer vision, where cost modeling is more developed. We find that at today's costs U.S. businesses would choose not to automate most vision tasks that have AI Exposure, and that only 23% of worker wages being paid for vision tasks would be attractive to automate. This slower roll-out of AI can be accelerated if costs fall rapidly or if it is deployed via AI-as-a-service platforms that have greater scale than individual firms, both of which we quantify. Overall, our findings suggest that AI job displacement will be substantial, but also gradual - and therefore there is room for policy and retraining to mitigate unemployment impacts.

Details of this work can be found here.

Speaker Bio: Neil Thompson is the Director of the FutureTech research project at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab and a Principal Investigator at MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy.

Previously, he was an Assistant Professor of Innovation and Strategy at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he co-directed the Experimental Innovation Lab (X-Lab), and a Visiting Professor at the Laboratory for Innovation Science at Harvard. He has advised businesses and government on the future of Moore's Law, has been on National Academies panels on transformational technologies and scientific reliability, and is part of the Council on Competitiveness' National Commission on Innovation & Competitiveness Frontiers.

He has a PhD in Business and Public Policy from Berkeley, where he also did Masters degrees in Computer Science and Statistics. He also has a masters in Economics from the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees in Physics and International Development. Prior to academia, He worked at organizations such as Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Bain and Company, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Canadian Parliament.

Location: IACS Seminar Room
The annual conference on Neural Information Processing Systems is a multi-track interdisciplinary annual meeting that includes invited talks, demonstrations, symposia, and oral and poster presentations of refereed papers. Along with the conference is a professional exposition focusing on machine learning in practice, a series of tutorials, and topical workshops that provide a less formal setting for the exchange of ideas.

For more information and registration, visit the official website.
A talk by Jerome Zhengrong Liang entitled, Machine Learning from Original Images to Texture Patterns: A Paradigm Shift from Non-Medical Application to Medical Diagnosis. Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) research for medical diagnosis started soon after human began to use computer, initially called artificial neural network (ANN) and now convolutional neural network (CNN). ANN has been mainly explored to classify the experts' handcrafted features from the original (or raw) images, while CNN has been mainly explored directly on the raw images for both tasks of extracting abstract features and classifying the features. Experimental evidences have been shown that CNN can be trained by a large number of the raw images with experts' scores (or labels) to match or even surpass the experts' performance for both non-medical and medical diagnosis applications. However, the performances of the CNN models as well as the experts on medical diagnosis dropped dramatically when the labels of the raw images were replaced by the corresponding medical pathological reports. Accumulated medical knowledge reveals that the lesion heterogeneity is a footprint of lesion evolution and ecology, and the heterogeneity is an indicator of lesion progress and response to medical intervention. The heterogeneity can be reflected by the image contrast distribution (or texture patterns) across the lesion volume. Image textures have been shown as an effective descriptor of the lesion heterogeneity for computer-aided diagnosis. Can we map the raw images into texture patterns (or images) and train CNN to learn from the texture images? This question is the central theme of this presentation with application to CT Colonography or virtual colonoscopy, a game from AlphaGo to PolypGo. Bio: Jerome Zhengrong Liang, PhD, IEEE Fellow Imaging Research and Informatics Laboratory Department of Radiology, Stony Brook University

You are cordially invited to attend the biweekly Brookhaven AI Mixer (BAM). BAM includes one short talk on AI research happening at BNL, followed by an open mixer over coffee and snacks for everyone to network and discuss all things AI. The first half hour will consist of presentations that will be available via ZOOM, and the second half hour will be for in person only networking.

Join us every other Tuesday at noon in CDSD's Training Room (building 725, 2nd floor) to learn about interesting AI methods and applications, engage with potential collaborators, prepare for pending FASST funding calls, and build a community of AI for Science at BNL.

Machine Learning for Seismic Low Frequency Extrapolation

Abstract: The cycle skipping problem that plagues seismic inversion can be mitigated by utilizing low-frequency seismic data, which captures the kinematics of wave propagation, in conjunction with a reasonable initial velocity model. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited and cannot provide signals down to 0 Hz. To improve solution of the seismic inverse problem one can synthesize the missing low-frequency content by solving a regression problem using machine learning (ML). The recorded high-frequency (HF) seismic data is the input and the ML models are trained to predict the missing low-frequency (LF) seismic data. Deep learning models utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and generative adversarial networks (GANs) demonstrate important capabilities for LF extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware and careful training. We explore the feasibility of using less costly ML models such as a random forest, Gaussian process surrogates, and gradient boosting as alternatives to computationally expensive deep learning models.

Biography: Sue Minkoff is Chair of Applied Mathematics at Brookhaven National Laboratory. From 2012-2024 she was a Professor of Mathematical Sciences and an Affiliated Professor in the Departments of Sustainable Earth Systems Sciences and Science and Mathematics Education at the University of Texas at Dallas. From 2000-2012 she served on the faculty in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She received her doctorate in Computational and Applied Mathematics from Rice University. From 1995-1997 she was a National Science Foundation-Industrial postdoc joint with the University of Texas at Austin and British Petroleum, and from 1997-2000 she held the von Neumann Fellowship in the Mathematics Department at Sandia National Labs. In 2000 Minkoff was promoted to Senior Member of the Technical Staff in Sandia's Geophysics Department. Minkoff's research interests include scientific computing, inverse problems, uncertainty quantification and digital twins modeling, Earth science, and photonics.

Location: CDS, Bldg. 725, Training Room

Join ZoomGov Meeting: https://bnl.zoomgov.com/j/1606848158?pwd=miUtq7OkYL5SNkjbgVb19teZPNennd.1

Meeting ID: 160 684 8158
Passcode: 068399

AI3 Seminar

Meir Feder

Professor, School of Electrical Engineering
Jokel Chair in Information Theory, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Tel-Aviv University

Information-Theoretic Framework for Understanding Modern Machine-Learning

Abstract:

Information Theory views learning as universal prediction under log loss, characterized through regret bounds. Unlike the classical results that considered ``small'' model classes and provided uniform regret, the proposed framework provides non-uniform, model dependent bounds utilizing an effective notion of architecture-based model complexity. This complexity is defined by the probability mass or volume of the set of all models in the vicinity of the target model \theta_0, in an informational distance. This volume might be hard to evaluate, yet by local analysis it is related to spectral properties of the expected Hessian or the Fisher Information Matrix at \theta_0, leading to tractable approximations. We argue that successful architectures possess a broad complexity range, enabling learning in highly over-parameterized model classes. The framework sheds light on the role of inductive biases, the effectiveness of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm, and phenomena such as flat minima. It unifies online, batch, supervised, and generative settings, and applies across the stochastic-realizable and agnostic regimes. Moreover, it provides insights into the success of modern machine-learning architectures, such as deep neural networks and transformers, suggesting that their broad complexity range naturally arises from their layered structure. These insights open the door to the design of alternative architectures with potentially comparable or even superior performance.

Biography:

Meir Feder received the Sc.D. degree in Electrical Engineering and Ocean Engineering in 1987 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). After being a Research Associate and a Lecturer at MIT, he joined the School of Electrical Engineering, Tel-Aviv University in 1990, where he is the Jokel Chaired Professor and the former founding head of Tel-Aviv university center for Artificial intelligence and Data science (TAD). Parallel to his academic career, he is closely involved with the high-tech industry: he founded 5 companies, among them Peach Networks (Acq: MSFT) and Amimon (Acq:LON.VTC). Recently, with his renewed interest in machine learning and AI, he co-founded Run:ai (Acq:NVDA), a virtualization, orchestration, and acceleration platform for AI infrastructure, acquired by Nvidia to support its GPU cloud operation.

Prof. Feder received several academic and professional awards including the IEEE Information Theory Society best paper award, the Padovani lectureship, the creative thinking award of the Israeli Defense Forces, and the Research Prize of the Israeli Electronic Industry, awarded by the President of Israel. For the technology he developed in Amimon, he received the 2020 Scientific and Engineering Award of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (OSCAR) and was announced the principal inventor of the technology that attained the 73rd Engineering Emmy Award of the Television Academy.

Location: NCS120